Complete the form on this page to download the free report overview which includes an executive summary, a table of contents, and a full list of figures. Today, hydrogen is commonly used as a chemical feedstock, but there is potential for it to also be burned for heat. 2050, hydrogen could also be used to produce synfuels for aviation and maritime transport. Some industrial facilities may generate their hydrogen on-site, and it is possible to transform hydrogen into other high-energy molecules that are compatible with existing energy infrastructure (such as ammonia or methane) with modest energy losses, both approaches that could minimize the need for new distribution infrastructure. 2050 hydrogen vision ~24% of final energy demand1 ~15% reduction of local emissions (NO x) relative to road transport ~560 Mt annual CO 2 abatement2 ~EUR 820bn annual revenue (hydrogen and equipment) ~5.4m jobs (hydrogen, equipment, supplier industries)3 WHY HYDROGEN CO 2 BESIDES CO 2 ABATEMENT, DEPLOYMENT OF THE HYDROGEN ROADMAP ALSO CUTS LOCAL Also, industry shifts 10% of its non-feedstock fossil energy use to hydrogen by 2050. They let you easily navigate your way around the site and allow us to improve its performance, or even recommend content we believe will be of most interest to you. According to the whitepaper, hydrogen fuel is expected to account for some 10 percent of the Chinese energy system by 2050, by which time demand for hydrogen fuel is anticipated to grow to nearly 60 million tons and its annual economic output is expected to … In March, China announced a plan to develop its hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry and subsidize hydrogen fueling station construction. Not until the mid 2030s do we expect significant penetration into new end-use sectors. Access the report here. Unequivocally, hydrogen has gained remarkable momentum this year. In reality, many non-hydrogen technologies (such as vehicle and industry electrification, increased energy and material efficiency, etc.) You may opt-out by. However, total European demand for green hydrogen from all sectors in 2050 is likely to be in the order of 1,000-2,000 TWh per year, the equivalent of only a fraction of the current natural gas consumption of 4,600 TWh. will also play important roles in reducing emissions. Hydrogen technologies are not yet widely used, but some countries are investing heavily in their future. However, hydrogen suppliers are able to pass these increased energy costs on to hydrogen buyers, as the increases in hydrogen demand in the HD and HD+E scenarios are fixed (i.e. Working in harmony with industry’s equipment replacement cycles and minimizing factory downtime will be important for rolling out this new technology. We are a nonpartisan climate policy think tank helping policymakers make informed energy policy choices and accelerate clean energy by supporting the policies that most effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Besides current uses, hydrogen in industry is expected to be used mainly in innovative production processes (e.g. Hydrogen4EU: All Hydrogen Technologies Needed To Reach Net Zero, New Study Finds. A hydrogen demand (HD) case gradually increases the share of newly-sold, hydrogen-powered on-road vehicles to 5% (cars and light trucks) or 10% (buses, medium trucks, and heavy trucks) by 2050. We are a nonpartisan climate policy think tank delivering high-quality research and original analysis to help policymakers make informed energy policy choices. Sufficient supply-push and demand-pull measures have to be taken in order Hydrogen would be used primarily for industrial feedstock and energy, together with transportation, heating and power in buildings, and power generation usage including hydrogen buffering. This could allow for a gradual transition to hydrogen, avoiding early equipment retirements or write-offs. Jeff is industry program director at Energy Innovation, where he leads its industrial sector decarbonization program. Hydrogen could provide half of the UK’s final energy demand by 2050 and play a key role in the country hitting its net zero target, according to Aurora Energy Research. Hydrogen could help meet 14% of US energy demand by 2050, the equivalent of more than 2,468 TWh or 8.4 billion MMBtu per year, according to a study issued Oct. 5 … The 98% of hydrogen production from fossil fuels emits 830 Mt of CO2 per year, equivalent to the annual emissions from the energy used by 100 million U.S. homes. The analysis was conducted to (1) address the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) request for regional H {sub 2} cost estimates that will be input to its energy modeling system and (2) identify key regional issues associated with the use of H {sub 2} that … Which sectors will be the first movers in the "hydrogen economy"? Which countries will be the most critical hydrogen markets over the next thirty years? Since these tools are not available, a supply-demand method was developed. This report presents an analysis of potential hydrogen (H {sub 2}) demand, production, and cost by region to 2050. Change in GHG Emissions Relative to BAU for the HD and HD+E cases. Change in hydrogen supplier cash flow in the HD scenario. A hydrogen demand (HD) case gradually increases the share of newly-sold, hydrogen-powered on-road vehicles to 5% (cars and light trucks) or 10% (buses, medium trucks, and heavy trucks) … Many industrial processes require high temperatures, including firing of kilns for cement, ceramics, or glass; forging steel; and heating boilers to produce steam. Costs could be 20-25% lower in countries with the best renewable and hydrogen storage resources, such as the U.S., Brazil, Australia, Scandinavia and the Middle East. Overall, the study predicts that the annual demand for hydrogen could increase tenfold by 2050 to almost 80 EJ in 2050 meeting 18% of total final energy demand in the 2050 two-degree scenario. Japan, which sees hydrogen as a way to reduce costly energy imports, hopes to have 800,000 hydrogen-powered vehicles by 2030 and to reduce the cost of hydrogen production by 90% by 2050 – making it cheaper than natural gas. energy and potential hydrogen markets beyond transportation • D: Insufficient Suite of Models & Tools – Tools integrating hydrogen as an energy carrier into the overall energy system and quantifying the value hydrogen provides. By 2050, low-carbon hydrogen will constitute 7% of global final energy demand. This transition depends upon high-quality research and development into hydrogen technologies, particularly in developing cheaper and more efficient ways to produce GHG-free hydrogen. European hydrogen demand in both pathways exceeds 30 Mt by 2030. Electricity could represent up to 70% of final energy demand by 2050, versus 20% today, with total electricity use expected to grow as much as 5 times in the coming decades. The global demand for hydrogen is expected to nearly double between 2017 and 2050. steel and Who will win the battle between blue and green hydrogen? Of the 70 Mt of hydrogen produced each year worldwide today, 76% comes from reforming natural gas, 22% from coal gasification, and 2% from electrolysis, in which electricity is used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen with zero emissions. PADD2 PADD3 PADD4 PADD5 Generally increasing H. 2 . 2050 hydrogen development scenarios Despite the described comparative advantages of the Netherlands, a hydrogen economy does not develop automatically. California has a target of 200 hydrogen fueling stations and over 47,000 hydrogen vehicles by 2025 and is hoping that hydrogen will help balance its electric grid. We accelerate the clean energy transition by supporting the policies and strategies that most effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Hydrogen Demand, Production, and Cost by Region to 2050 Argonne National Laboratory is managed by The University of Chicago for the U. S. Department of Energy Hydrogen Demand, Production, and Cost by Region to 2050 ANL/ESD/05-2 Short-term analytics (previously Genscape), Natural resources research for financial services, Oil Field Services & Original Equipment Manufacturers, 2020 Featured Reports - Power & Renewables. In the majority of scenarios, hydrogen and synfuels add up to between 20% and 50% of energy demand in transport in 2050. We help our clients address their most pressing strategic and commercial challenges. Electricity costs more than natural gas per unit energy, and less energy is required to convert natural gas to hydrogen than to split water, as natural gas consists of high-energy molecules (primarily methane), while water is a low-energy molecule. This report is available to subscribers of Wood Mackenzie's Energy Transition Service. But to achieve even a small fraction of this level of hydrogen technology deployment, increased support for research and development will be crucial. Hydrogen sector revenues and profits rise rapidly through the early 2030s, with revenue growth slowing only slightly due to technology-driven declines in the cost of hydrogen production (and, hence, retail prices). A hydrogen demand plus electrolysis (HD+E) case includes growth in hydrogen demand in the transportation and industry sectors identical to the HD case, and hydrogen production gradually transitions to 100% electrolysis by 2050. Hydrogen’s potential for decreasing GHG emissions is high. Industry Program Director & Head of Modeling, The Leukemia & Lymphoma Society BrandVoice, The Next Step | Small Business Video Series, The Colonial Pipeline Outage: An Important Lesson For US Energy Security, The Colonial Pipeline Hack Is A Problem Not A Crisis, After Colonial Cyberattack, Time For Oil Traders To Reassess Risk, Colonial Cyber Attack Demands Reevaluation Of US Infrastructure Security, FBI: Colonial Pipeline Hacked By ‘Apolitical’ Group DarkSide, Biden Should Get Republicans On Board With His Energy Investment Package, Capturing Methane From Oil And Gas Operations Is Doable And Profitable, Expert Recommendations On Nuclear Waste May Fall On Deaf Ears – Yet Again, predictions from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, No one fuel or technology is by itself the solution to climate change, ways governments can support research and development, A business-as-usual case (BAU) shows modest growth in hydrogen vehicles, in line with. Both the HD and HD+E scenarios reduce total GHG emissions relative to the BAU case (Fig 1). But the market is nascent, costs remain high and transportation is complex. Adding potential hydrogen demand from power, aviation and shipping sectors is likely to strengthen the case for an even more expansive network of hydrogen pipelines. The Alliance also expects hydrogen demand to increase to 45 mt in 2040 (with green hydrogen accounting for 40%) and to 60 mt in 2050 … This makes hydrogen different from fossil fuels like natural gas and petroleum, whose combustion is responsible for the vast majority of GHG emissions today. The extent to which hydrogen prevents GHG emissions depends on how that hydrogen is made. They do not include the costs of building or maintaining hydrogen distribution infrastructure, such as new pipelines, tanker trucks, or storage tanks. While many clean energy technologies are cost-effective today (such as wind and solar power, battery electric cars, smart thermostats, and more), hydrogen technology needs more research to achieve its full potential. Is low-carbon hydrogen the "new oil"? Last year, seven national hydrogen strategies were unveiled, targeting 66 GW of electrolyzer capacity for green hydrogen production. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. hg fdj hng ng fmhg mg hmg hj mg hfmf . Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Hydrogen is arguably the hottest topic in energy. Until 2030, 80% of low-carbon hydrogen deployment will be for decarbonizing existing end-uses of fossil-based hydrogen. A new report examining various scenarios of hydrogen adoption in North-West Europe has found that demand could exceed 700 terrawatts (TWh) by 2050, Kallanish Energy reports. Two scenarios in the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) illustrate pathways in which hydrogen becomes a major part of the U.S. energy mix, earning revenue of $130-170 billion per year by 2050 while lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20 or 120 million metric tons (Mt) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) annually. Our analysis suggests that a delivered cost of green hydrogen of around $2/kg ($15/MMBtu) in 2030 and $1/kg ($7.4/MMBtu) in 2050 in China, India and Western Europe is achievable. Yet, hydrogen’s greatest potential may be in the industrial sector, which uses the overwhelming majority of today’s hydrogen, particularly in oil refining and in ammonia, methanol, and steel production. Dutch Hydrogen demand 2050: 430 PJ/year (120 TWh) We consider this estimate of 250 PJ of hydrogen as a new energy carrier to be a conservative estimate.. To arrive at a figure for total Dutch domestic demand, the demand for hydrogen as a feedstock for industry needs to be added.Estimating this, one may argue that the refining of crude oil is going to stop eventually. AMGAD ELGOWAINY (PI), MARIANNE MINTZ , JEONGWOO HAN (currently with Exxon), ... 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 . We use cookies on the public areas of our website. a, for e-methane (hydrogen shipped from Northwest Africa to northwestern European ports, based on fossil CCU) for 2020–25, 2030 and 2050, in … hydrogen demand does not respond to changes in hydrogen’s retail price in these scenarios), and a lack of hydrogen import/export availability prevents the influence of a global market that could hold down hydrogen prices. Subscribe to our trusted data and analysis for global energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries. Though industrial facilities would generally need new equipment to burn hydrogen, as noted above, hydrogen may be transformed into other high-energy molecules that are compatible with existing industrial equipment. By 2050, the HD case reduces GHG emissions by 20 Mt of CO2e per year, while the HD+E case reduces GHG emissions by over 120 Mt CO2e per year in 2050 – comparable to removing 25 million passenger vehicles from U.S. roads. We deliver real-time and historical data, forecasts, analytical insight, tools and software solutions. There are crucial ways governments can support research and development, including long-term funding commitments, partnerships between national labs and the private sector, and immigration and education systems that provide companies with the high-level STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) talent they need. Hydrogen combustion offers a route by which industries can obtain high heat without direct GHG emissions. No one fuel or technology is by itself the solution to climate change, but hydrogen has the potential to be an important part of a decarbonized energy system. Will this market be able to overcome those barriers? Close to US$1Trillion will be required for low-carbon hydrogen production CAPEX. The China Hydrogen Alliance expects hydrogen demand to increase by 35 mt in 2030 and green hydrogen to account for 15% of total domestic demand. Adding potential hydrogen demand from other hard-to-abate applications in power, aviation and shipping sectors is likely to strengthen the case for a more expansive network of hydrogen pipelines. Costs to hydrogen buyers could be lower if technology breakthroughs lower the costs or improve the efficiency of electrolysis, if electricity prices are lower than expected, if a robust import/export market for hydrogen develops, or if alternative zero-carbon hydrogen production technologies (such as thermochemical water splitting) are commercialized and surpass electrolysis in cost-effectiveness. A diverse demand for hydrogen. If you would like to learn more about how we use cookies and how you can manage them, see our Cookie policy. By 2050, total hydrogen demand could reach 650 MtH 2 /y, roughly five times the size of current production levels. Abstract. demand growth to 2050 and the scope and distribution of economic and environmental costs and benefits from Australian hydrogen industry development. A new release of the U.S. EPS, a free and open-source computer model that estimates the impacts of energy technologies and policies, allows users to explore the future of hydrogen in the U.S. Three scenarios highlight some of the most interesting results: The HD and HD+E scenarios illustrate the potential impacts of large-scale hydrogen deployment and are not meant to realistically predict future decarbonization pathways.